Wynn Resorts Stock Has Dubious August History

Posted on: August 2, 2024, 04:40h. 

Last updated on: August 2, 2024, 04:40h.

Todd Shriber @etfgodfather Read More
Expertise: Financial, Gaming Business, Mergers and Acquisitions.

August is just two days old, but Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN) has notched consecutive lower closes to start the month, indicating the stock could be poised to live up to a rough August track record.

Wynn Resorts
Wynn and Encore on the Las Vegas Strip. The stock is off to a bad start in August and that’s par for the course for the shares in the eighth month of the year. (Image: Luxury Lifestyle Magazine)

With the gaming equity trading at its lowest levels in 20 months, the calendar turning to August is potentially ominous because Wynn’s average decline in the eighth month of the year over the past decade is 5.19%, according to Schaeffer’s Investment Research. Over that period, just three other members of the S&P 500 averaged worse August showings than Wynn.

On the charts, WYNN’s 20-day moving average has steadily guided it lower since it touched an annual high of $110.38 on April 4. The security is now trading at its lowest levels since November 2022, down 13.1% in 2024,” noted Schaeffer’s. “Plus, seasonality suggests the shares are going to drop even more.”

Despite some encouraging news out of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), where Wynn is building a casino resort, earlier this week, the stock slumped 6% on the week and is off 12% over the past month. A decline of 10% is considered a correction.

More Troubling Signs for Wynn, Other Gaming Stocks

Wynn’s slump this week and those of other gaming equities is arguably troubling when considering that Macau operators, of which Wynn is one, posted July gross gaming revenue (GGR) of $2.31 billion.

This week’s woes for gaming stocks, including Wynn, were compound by a slack July jobs report. Earlier today, the Labor Department said employers added 114,000 jobs last month, well below economists’ expectations of 175,000. The unemployment jumped to 4.3% from 4.1% and 10 of the past 14 employment reports have been revised lower. Investors are now speculating that the Federal Reserve waited too long to lower interest rates and that when it finally does, it will be because the economy is softening. Historically, stocks have performed poorly against that backdrop.

For now, sell-side analysts remain bullish on Wynn, but that thesis could be challenged by the stock’s weakness and the operator’s second-quarter earnings report scheduled for Aug. 6.

“There’s plenty of optimism to unwind amongst options traders and analysts as well. Of the 14 analysts in coverage, 11 recommend a ‘strong buy’ rating, while its 12-month consensus price target of $123.67 is a 55.9% premium to current levels,” added Schaeffer’s.

Wynn Stock Not Only August Gaming Offender

Wynn isn’t alone among gaming stocks that often struggle in the eighth month of the year. Over the past decade, Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS) averaged an August decline of 3.15%, noted Schaeffer’s.

Like rival Wynn, Sands is also one of the worst-performing S&P 500 components over the past 10 years in the month of August. And like Wynn, Sands didn’t benefit from the Macau July GGR report as that stock slid 2.86% this week.

Unlike Wynn, Sands doesn’t run any US casinos, but that status hasn’t spared the shares, which are off 10.55% over the past month.