Wynn Resorts Macau Bottom Close, Inflection Point Near, Says Analyst

Posted on: November 6, 2020, 09:39h. 

Last updated on: November 6, 2020, 10:50h.

Todd Shriber @etfgodfather Read More
Expertise: Financial, Gaming Business, Mergers and Acquisitions.

Shares of Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ:WYNN) are trading lower Friday, a day after the company delivered a dreadful set of third-quarter results that easily missed Wall Street estimates. But at least one analyst sees green shoots with the name.

Wynn Stock
Wynn Palace in Macau where things are looking up for the operator. (Image: Bobby Yip/Reuters)

Late Thursday, Wynn said it lost $7.10 a share on revenue of $370.45 million during the most recently completed three-month stretch. But analysts were expecting a loss of $4.39 on sales of $434.48 million. The primary source of that weakness was ongoing lethargy in Macau, Wynn’s largest market. There, sales clocked in at just $67.1 million against estimates of $166.1 million.

There are emerging bright spots, as Wynn said it generated positive earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) in Macau last month, prompting some bullish reaction from Stifel analyst Steven Wieczynski.

While visitation/spend levels remain depressed, we believe the sequential improvement witnessed throughout 3Q20 and now into 4Q20 in visitation/drop could be signaling the bottom, which could start to lure investors off the sidelines,” said Wieczynski in a note to clients today.

In noting Wynn’s October mass drop in Macau was 40 percent of pre-coronavirus levels, and rolling chip volumes reached 25 percent to 30 percent of levels seen before the pandemic, the analyst rated Wynn a “buy,” while boosting his price target on the stock to $100 from $92.

Growing Enthusiasm

Hamstrung by the pace of recovery in Macau, Wynn stock is lower by 42.30 percent year-to-date, and labors 48.28 percent below its 52-week high.

However, there’s a growing sense on Wall Street that not only is the name attractively valued, but poised to rally on the back off pent-up demand after COVID-19 is defeated. They also claim concerns about the strength of the Macau VIP market, a core constituency for Wynn, are overblown.

Recently, Morgan Stanley lifted its Wynn price forecast to $95. Then Stifel’s Wieczynski chimed in with the aforementioned $100 call. Average that out to $97.50, and it’s almost $4 above the Street consensus and roughly 22 percent higher than where the stock resides today.

Odds and Ends

Among the pleasant surprises in Wynn’s third-quarter reporter were record EBITDA at Encore Boston Harbor and indications that business is perking up in Las Vegas, where it owns two integrated resorts.

With group and convention business on the Strip still essentially non-existent, Wynn is managing costs, which could lead to positive EBITDA in the coming months despite top line pressure. Still, the stock will mostly be evaluated through a Macau lens, and that could finally turn into a positive for investors over the coming months.

“WYNN management indicated the current pacing of visitation back into the market continues to improve. Macau visitation trends are encouraging, having steadily improved since the reintroduction of the individual visit scheme (IVS) in late September,” said Wieczynski.

For 2021, the analyst estimates Wynn will lose $3.46 a share on revenue of $4.66 billion, figures that are far higher than his 2020 forecasts.