Wynn UAE Casino Resort Could Generate up to $1.4B in GGR, Say Analysts

Posted on: June 6, 2024, 04:48h. 

Last updated on: June 6, 2024, 04:48h.

Todd Shriber @etfgodfather Read More
Expertise: Financial, Gaming Business, Mergers and Acquisitions.

Wynn Resorts’ (NASDAQ: WYNN) Wynn Al Marjan Island integrated resort in Ras Al Khaimah, United Arab Emirates (UAE) could notch up to $1.4 billion in annual gross gaming revenue when it’s fully ramped up.

Wynn UAE
Construction at Wynn Al Marjan Island. Analysts believe the venue could eventually generate $1.4 billion in gross gaming revenue (GGR). (Image: Wynn Resorts)

That forecast was recently put forth by CBRE Capital Advisors analysts John DeCree and Max Marsh following a visit to the emirates. They believe it’s possible that Wynn Al Marjan Island, which is scheduled to open in early 2027, could ramp more rapidly than expected.

We estimate Wynn Al Marjan Island to stabilise by 2030. However, the property could ramp much quicker given the current lack of gaming supply in the region. We are forecasting stabilised gross gaming revenue (GGR) of US$1.38 billion, net revenue of US$1.8 billion, and property EBITDAR before management fees of US$921 million,” according to the analysts.

Should CBRE’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, and restructuring or rent costs (EBITDAR) forecast prove accurate, it’d be well ahead of Wynn’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) projection of $450 million to $600 million for the UAE venue.

Big Casino Potential in UAE

Currently, the UAE does not permit casino gaming. No country in the Arab world does, but it’s widely expected Wynn Al Marjan Island will be the first property to gain such approval and that could touch off additional approvals of gaming permits there.

By some estimates, the total addressable gaming market in UAE is $8.5 billion. Should that prove accurate and UAE eventually becomes a multi-casino jurisdiction, it’d be the fourth-largest gaming market in the world behind Macau, Nevada, and Singapore.

Wynn Al Marjan Island cannot do all the heavy lifting on its own so for UAE to reach or even flirt with being an $8.5 billion casino market, it’s likely either Abu Dhabi, Dubai, or both would need to allow integrated resorts.

“In Dubai, ‘The Island’ project at Jumeirah Beach is a logical contender for a possible integrated resort, where MGM Resorts is the development manager and has a non-gaming management contract,” observe the CBRE analysts.

Other analysts believe that should Dubai casinos, the MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM) property would be the logical choice and that could pose a threat to the Wynn venture.

Threats Could Be Overstated

While it’s possible that some of the other larger emirates eventually approve wagering, Wynn Al Marjan Island is likely to establish over yet-to-be-determined rivals simply by way of timing. The CBRE analysts also pointed out that Abu Dhabi is the emirate most likely to next approve casino gaming and Dubai could be third.

Additionally, data indicate threats to Wynn Al Marjan Island may be overstated because developers and investors have gobbled up land in Ras Al Khaimah, indicating they believe the Wynn venue will be successful.

What hasn’t been determined as of yet is whether or not UAE will actually approve casinos and if it does, what the makeup of the gaming area at the Wynn establishment will look like. It’s know that the casino will command just 4% of the 5.6 million square feet there, but it’s not yet clear if there will be caps on slot machines and table games.

“It’s unclear yet if there will be slot or table caps, but we suspect Wynn will have plenty of space for adequate gaming supply. Our model assumes 275 table games and 2,083 slots as a starting point,” concluded the CBRE analysts.