Ranking Every Premier League Manager by How Likely They Are to Get Sacked

Just nine games into the new season, Manchester United manager Erik Ten Hag has been given his marching orders after receiving a surprise contract extension only a few months ago. Such is the brutal nature of top-flight football.

But as the contenders start to separate themselves from the pretenders, which Managers’ jobs are safe (at least for now), and who might be out the door next?

Casino.org ranked Premier League Managers across 19 factors to predict which Gaffas are most likely to get the boot.

We looked at everything from their Premier League track record to success in domestic and European tournaments, money spent on new signings, and even the amount teams paid per goal in the 23/24 season.

We also considered club-specific factors like how long since their last major win, how many managers they’ve gone through in the last decade, and how negative their fans are online.

The index is updated weekly with the latest results and form for the last five games.

Each manager was scored on their performance in each category, and the total was used to create an overall Hot Seat Score. The higher the score, the more likely they won’t last the season.

At the time of his sacking, Erik ten Hag had a hot seat score of 93.1 out of 100.

Ranking Premier League Managers by How Likely They Are to be Sacked

1. Sean Dyche: Everton – Hot Seat Score 97.8 out of 100

After a goalless draw against West Ham, Dyche remains in first place in the Casino.org sack race.

Only a handful of clubs have scored fewer goals so far this season and with the team hovering just above the relegation zone, it’s hard to see how Dyche will survive the rest of the season.

With a club takeover on course to be completed, new ownership will likely look to hit the reset button and start a new era at Goodison Park.

2. Russell Martin: Southampton FC – Hot Seat Score 95.6 out of 100

A 2-0 loss to a previously winless Wolves saw the Saints fall to dead last in the Premier League table.

With 4 losses in the last 5 games and just 1 win all season, Russell Martin’s days at the helm look to be numbered.

However, with the sixth-youngest and second-cheapest roster in the league, ownership might be willing to give Martin more time than most, but if he’s unable to pull some points out of the bag quickly, ownership will look for someone who can.

3. Oliver Glasner: Crystal Palace – Hot Seat Score 94.2 out of 100

Following a strong run at the end of last season, hopes were high for Glasner. But after picking up just 7 points through the first 11 games, Palace looks like a team that will be flirting with the relegation zone for the rest of the season.

Between now and Christmas, Crystal Palace will have some tough games against the likes of Newcastle, Manchester City, and Arsenal. Failing to pick up points in the games between those fixtures or getting embarrassed by the bigger clubs could end up with Glasner looking for a new job in 2025.

4. Julen Lopetegui: West Ham United – Hot Seat Score 91.2 out of 100

Almost a third of the way into the new Premier League season, the honeymoon period is over for West Ham and Julen Lopetegui whose team currently sit just 5 points clear of the dreaded relegation draw as we head into the international break.

At an average age of 28.4 years old, Lopetegui is working with the league’s oldest squad which also happens to be among the top 10 most expensive in terms of payroll. 

While old and expensive generally isn’t a winning combination in professional sport, Lopetegui will have to find a way to have more success with the squad he has before bringing in some youth in his second season with the team – if he’s fortunate enough to earn it.

5. Ange Postecoglou: Tottenham Hotspur – Hot Seat Score 89.3 out of 100

With a shock loss to Ipswich, Ange Postecoglou enters the top 5 of the Casino.org sack race for the first time this season.

The club have been vocal in their support for the Australian after leading Spurs to a fifth-place finish last year, but the team has struggled to find consistency so far this season picking up the same number of wins as they have losses.

One of the biggest spenders over the last few years, Spurs paid a massive £1.4million per goal last season, so Postecoglou will have to start delivering a better return on the teams investment if he wants to hold on to his job for a third term

The Most Negative Football Fans

While several things factor into a club’s decision to sack their manager, how fans feel about the man in charge is usually a good sign of which way the wind is blowing.

We used AI to analyze sentiment across the top 100 Reddit threads for each team over the past 12 months, revealing which fanbases are most frustrated with the direction their club is headed.

Our research shows that nearly half (46%) of comments from Everton fans contain negative language.

Being the first club in English top-flight history to receive two separate points deductions in one season is enough to put any fanbase in a tailspin, and winning less than a third (31%) of their premier league games over the last few years only adds to their misery.

With 37.4% of online fan chatter leaning negative, West Ham ranks as the second most miserable fanbase.

With Moyes out and a new manager in place, you’d expect fans to be hopeful. However, Lopetegui’s sudden exit from Wolves just days before last season raises questions about his commitment if and when the going gets tough.

The third most negative fanbase was Tottenham. 

Postecoglou’s first season didn’t offer much excitement, and with the loss of club icon Harry Kane still looming large, it’s hard for fans to shake the feeling that Tottenham’s best years are behind them—at least for now.

Methodology

We gathered data for current Premier League managers (24/25 season) across a range of categories, including:

• Years remaining on their contract
• Premier League win percentage with their current team (prior to the 24/25 season)
• Team finish in 23/24 Premier League season compared to the previous season
• The number of quarter-finals, semi-finals and finals reached with their current team in both domestic and European cups
• Managers career domestic and European Cup wins
• Years since the club’s last major title win
• The average age of the 24/25 squad
• Money spent on transfers since the 23/24 season (EUR converted to GBP)
• Active roster salaries for the 24/25 season (spotrac)
• The number of full-time managers for each team over the last 10 years (Excluding interim and caretaker roles)
• The proportion of negative Reddit comments from fans
• How much teams paid per goal in the 23/24 season (All goals scored in competitive games I.E not in friendly matches, divided by teams’ active roster salaries for the same season, according to spotrac)

Managers were scored on their relative performance in each category using a min-max normalisation formula. Scores were totalled to create an overall index score.

Years Remaining on Contract, Years Since Club Last Title, and Average age of squad were worth half the score of the other factors. For the Quarter Final, Semi Final, and Finals reached categories, the score was reduced by 50% for each stage.

Where no data was available due to the team being recently promoted, Managers were assigned a neutral score 

Premier League win percentage and form over the last 5 games are updated weekly.

The proportion of negative Reddit comments from fans is an analysis of comments on the top 100 Reddit threads for each team over the last 12 months.

We used a large language model available through HuggingFace to analyse and score each comment on how positive or negative they are based on the language used. 

Comments are scored on a scale from 0-1 based on how strongly positive or strongly negative they were considered to be. Data is accurate as of September 2024.

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