The Truth About Sports Betting

The Correlation between Skill and Results in Sport

Michael Mauboussin, author of The Success Equation, investigated the correlation between skill and results across a variety of sports.

Lottery tickets, roulette games and slots machines rely entirely on luck, as you’d imagine. For all the strategies you can employ, there’s no way to create an edge against the casino. The presence of luck gradually lessens as you move across different sports, yet it’s always present to some degree. It’s important to keep this in mind when betting, to avoid the likelihood of overconfidence creeping in, and to stand against the perception that a ‘sure thing’ ever exists when it comes to sports betting.

The Impact of Luck in Sports Betting

You may have watched sports events where one player or team dominates throughout, before somehow contriving to lose. The final score tells us little about the impact of luck on the game, but a metric called expected goals (xG) can be used to tackle the problem.

The xG analyses the quality of chances that take place in a soccer match, with each shot attributed a probability of becoming a goal.

The chart below focuses on the finishing positions in the 2019/20 English Premier League soccer season. On the left, the positions are based on expected goals. On the right, we can see the actual final positions.

While there are similarities – for example, the same four teams occupy the top four positions in both cases – we also have different winners, and a different team at the bottom of the table. This demonstrates how a good bet doesn’t always win. It should act as a reminder to keep your staking plan in check and under control.

Accumulator Bets

Accumulators – wagers made up of multiple selections in a single bet – are incredibly popular amongst sports bettors. This is predominantly due to the possibility of winning a significant amount of money from a relatively small wager.

Sportsbooks are more than happy to take on these wagers though, and one of the key reasons relates to the margin. For each selection placed, the house edge increases, and it does so at a compounded rate.

The table below shows the effect on the total margin as the number of selections in the accumulator increases, assuming a 3% edge is applied to each selection.

If you find accumulators are the most entertaining form of sports wager, and you’re betting within your means, there’s no reason to change your betting habits. But there should be a realization and acceptance that achieving profit is far tougher when faced with a margin of 26% than the 3% you’d often be up against when wagering on the outcome of a single event.

Track your Bets and Analyze Past Performance

Keeping a log of your previous betting history is one way to stay on top of your betting habits. Many sportsbooks will have this information readily available when you log in to your account. Specific areas that might enlighten you are:

• Analyzing preferred markets: are there certain sports or types of bets that you enjoy placing or tend to do better at?
• Investigating your betting style and frequency: is there a time or day where your bets are more impulsive, leaving you wishing you’d taken a watching brief?
• Looking into your betting stakes: does the amount you wager vary, based on either your confidence that a bet will win, or the results of your previous bets?

Uncovering trends of this kind can be a simple yet effective way to increase your profitability, and ultimately your enjoyment too.

Don't Set Targets

Setting targets can be dangerous for even the most experienced bettors. Sport is seasonal, so it’s natural to expect peaks and troughs in terms of the quantity and quality of attractive wagering opportunities. Giving yourself a target can result in placing bets that you hadn’t originally intended. It can also put yourself under pressure to chase losses. Try to take each bet in isolation to avoid placing wagers you might regret later.

Use Responsible Gambling Tools

An increasing number of sportsbooks and casinos have introduced responsible gambling tools to ensure their customers are betting for the right reasons. UK bookmaker Skybet claim that over half a million of their customers already set a deposit limit, so you shouldn’t feel uncomfortable adding to that number.

Here’s a summary of some of the available tools:

• Deposit Limits

  This facility allows customers to limit the size of their deposits over a period of a day or a month.
• Reality Check

  This gives you the ability to receive an onscreen notification after you have been playing on a betting site for a predetermined length of time.
• Cool Off Periods

  This provides the opportunity to block yourself from accessing a sportsbook for a short period of time, from a day through to a month.
• Self-Exclusion

  This lets customers prevent themselves from accessing their betting account for a longer period, typically between six months and five years.